The guy at the campground in Flagstaff told me to skip the rain fly on a clear night, and I woke up soaked
Last month I was camping near Flagstaff and a guy at the next site saw me setting up my tent and told me not to bother with the rain fly since the forecast was clear. I figured he knew the area better than I did, so I left it off and went to sleep. Around 2am a storm rolled in that nobody predicted, and I woke up with about an inch of water in my tent and a soaked sleeping bag. Cost me a $60 bag and a miserable drive home the next morning. Now I want to know, do any of you actually trust local weather calls over just putting the fly on anyway?
The line about a storm that "nobody predicted" is the whole thing right there, and it happens way more than people think. Weather folks get it wrong all the time, even with all their fancy gear, so some random guy at a campsite is basically just guessing with extra confidence. Honestly this is the same trap as trusting the guy at the hardware store who says you don't need the extra screws, or the mechanic who says that noise is nothing. People give advice like it's free, but you're the one who pays when it's wrong. The rain fly weighs almost nothing and takes two minutes, so there's zero real cost to just putting it on every time. My rule for anything outdoors is simple: skip the shortcut when the downside is a cold wet night and the upside is saving two minutes.